GTA New Home Supply

Some other details from our March 2013 GTA New Home data release earlier this week.

Year to date (Jan. to Mar.) 2013 new home sales are down significantly from the same period last year. So far this year High Rise new home sales are down -24% and Low Rise new home sales are down -43% from the first 3 months of 2012. An interesting point however is the dip in new Supply so far this year. New High rise projects openings (total units) are down -64% from the same period last year and new Low Rise supply (total lots released) is down -53% from the same period in 2012. This had new home remaining inventory dropping slightly from February 2013 to March 2013. However, March 2013 available inventory is still +8% higher than last year for High Rise units and 15% higher for Low Rise homes.

Below is an extract from our Monthly Market Report – March 2013 to which all RealInfo subscription clients have access.

March & Q1 2013 GTA New Home Sales

The March and Q1 2013 new home market numbers for the GTA were released in a RealNet private client webinar this morning. The detailed market briefing delivered by George Carras (President, RealNet) with additional market presentations by TREB’s Jason Mercer, BILD’s Bryan Tuckey, and NBLC’s Barry Lyon will be posted inside the RealInfo application for download by clients.

In the meantime here are some of the highlights:

March 2013 New Home Sales:

High Rise: 1,120 sales; down -47% from March 2012

Low Rise: 973 sales; down -47% from March 2012

Total New Homes: 2,093 sales; down -47% from March 2012

Q1 2013 New Home Sales:

High Rise: 2,931 sales; down -24% from Q1 2012

Low Rise: 2,639 sales; down -43% from Q1 2012

Total New Homes: 5,570 sales; down -34% from Q1 2012

I’ll be back soon with new Supply and Remaining Inventory numbers. New Supply has dropped dramatically from Q1 2012 and remaining inventory (although still higher than the same time last year) has edged down from the recent highs of late last fall.

GTA New Homes – YTD 2013

Here’s a look at our year to date (Jan. thru Feb.) sales in 2013 as compared to the same period in previous years.

High Rise: 1,734 sales; down -2% from YTD 2012

Low Rise: 1,660 sales; down -40% from YTD 2012

Total New Homes: 3,390 sales; down -25% from YTD 2012

GTA New Home Sales – February 2013

Here are the monthly sales figures for the GTA new home market for February 2013….

High Rise: 952 sales; down -7% from Feb. 2012

Low Rise: 1,078 sales; down -32% from Feb. 2012

Total New Homes: 2,030 sales; down -22% from Feb. 2012

Back soon with the updated Year to Date totals…..

For subscribers to RealInfo, your full Monthly Market Reports (High Rise, Low Rise) are available on the Market Reports page after logging in to the service at http://www.realnet.ca

Crunching February Numbers…..

We’ll have the GTA New Home sales figures for February 2013 here on Tuesday….

 

 

GTA New Home Sales – January 2013

Here are the numbers for January 2013 new home sales in the GTA.

High Rise: 686 sales; down -8% from Jan. 2012

Low Rise: 562 sales; down -52% from Jan. 2012

Total New Homes: 1,248 sales; down -35% from Jan. 2012

More numbers soon…..

GTA Condo – Building Size Part 2 (Height)

So based on Total Units we showed an increasing number of larger condo projects being launched but also a decreasing average size – ie lots of smaller building too.

Now what about building height? Lots of new skyscrapers out there but lets get some perspective by looking at all of the data.

Looking at the building height (storeys) in new project openings by quarter since 2000 we get the following chart. Each circle represents a new condo project corresponding to its Opening Date (x-axis) and the Building Height in storeys (y-axis) with the colour representing the current Construction Status.

As illustrated above, 2012 had more new project openings of buildings greater than or equal to 40 storeys than any previous year with 14 projects. The previous record was the 12 projects greater than 40 storeys that launched in 2011. Before that 9 projects of that building height launched in 2010, 2008, and in 2007.

In general there was a big step up in the number of new project launches with buildings greater than or equal to 40 storeys beginning in 2005 when there were 8 such projects. Previous to that, 3 projects in one year was the most.

The most drastic changes year over year belong to the number of projects greater than or equal to 60 storeys. Prior to 2012 there had never been more than 1 of these projects opening in a given year, and in total there were only 5. But in 2012 alone there were 4 new projects launched of 60 storeys or grater.

As with Total Units, the projects with Building Heights at the top end are getting more plentiful but on average 2012 saw the lowest average Building Height (15.9 storeys) since 2009 (which was a bit of an odd year for new releases) and 2004 before that.

So we’re getting more larger buildings (units and storeys) as well as more smaller buildings (units and storeys). This seems to play into the dual market make-up of the new home condo market – part investor and part owner-occupier – each with different preferences and buying habits. This “Tale of Two Markets” was also considered here .

The next step is to further segment the smaller building universe to see if there are changes there that might indicate more of an evolving owner occupier market. Stay tuned… And you can get email notification of new posts by clicking on the “sign me up” button in the right margin.