GTA NH Sales: September & Q3 2010

RealNet released September and Q3 2010 numbers for GTA new home sales on October 19, 2010 during a live webcast hosted by RealNet president George Carras and including a panel disccusion with Barry Lyon (NBLC), Jason Mercer (TREB), and Stephen Dupuis (BILD).

Some interesting things about the numbers. For Total new home sales, Q3 2010 was the lowest 3rd quarter of the last 11. Broken down by project type, Low Rise sales came in at 10th out of the last 11 3rd quarters, while High Rise sales ranked 6th of the last 11 3rd quarters. Things look bad (Total sales & Low Rise sales) or average (High Rise sales) at best. Where things start to get interesting is when we break the Q3 numbers down by project type (Low Rise & High Rise) and by month.

Generally, for both Total new home sales and Low Rise new home sales measured either by the quarter, the summer, or the September numbers, all ranked either 10th or 11th when comparing to the same period over the last 11 years. But looking at High Rise sales we see that sales for both the Q3 2010 and the summer months (July+August) of 2010 ranked as the 6th highest sales level of the last 11 years. But September ranked as the 3rd highest sales level when comparing the last 11 Septembers. A bright spot in the Q3 2010 numbers.

We also know that about 400 sales were written in High Rise projects that launched late enough in September such that none of those sales qualified as “firm” so were not counted in our September High Rise figures. To be counted as firm sales they must be through the 10 day recission period.

This all puts a lot of attention on the October numbers which we expect to be available on November 19th.

About Steven Hurst

VP Analytics, RealNet Canada
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