GTA Low Rise New Home Trends

Taking a look at the market share of GTA Low Rise new home sales by Product Type, Lot Type, and Lot Size range we learn the following:

Detached product types made up 56% of the sales in the low rise new homes market in 2011. This is down from a typical rate of over 60% since 2001. Townhouse product accounted for almost 32% of sales in 2011 followed by Semi-Detached at 10% and Link at just under 2%. The biggest mover since 2000 has been Townhouse products which have moved from roughly 20% of the Low Rise new home sales to 32% in 2011.

The 2012 results illustrated in the chart pertain only to the month of January so far.

Now looking at the market share of Low Rise new home sales by Lot Type we see a trend away from Wide-Shallow lots back to Traditional lots and a long-term increase in Rear Lane lots. We define Wide-Shallow lots as those with a depth less than 95 feet.

In 2011 Traditional lots accounted for 57% of Low Rise new home sales, up from a low of 47% in 2006. Moving in the opposite direction is the market share for Wide Shallow lots at 34% in 2011, down from 47% in 2006. Meanwhile, Rear Lane lots have moved from a market share of 3.7% in 2000 to 8.9% in 2011.

2012 figures illustrated in the chart represents data from only the month of January.

Now looking at Low Rise new home sales by Lot Size we get the following market breakdown. The three lot size ranges from 20′ to 49′ have combined yearly to account for 87% to 92% of the Low Rise new home market in the GTA in roughly equal amounts.

But we see a strong divergence in 2011 with smaller lots sizes (20′ to 29′) accounting for almost 36% of Low Rise sales that year when that size range had previously surpassed 30% on only 3 occasions in the past 12 years and only by a small amount.

And perhaps the trend will continue in 2012 as 20′ to 29′ lots accounted for over 41% of January 2012 Low Rise new home sales.

If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to contact me. I’ll be back with more long term trend data after we report on February 2012 new home sales in the next couple of days.

About Steven Hurst

VP Analytics, RealNet Canada
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