A few posts ago I took a look at the GTA Condo Pipeline based on project opening dates, percentage sold, and current construction status. In other words, the “inputs” of the pipeline.
Now let’s look at the “outputs” of the pipeline – occupancies – or more precisely, projects/units available for occupancy.
So this chart places each GTA condo project in the month/year of its actual (July 31, 2012 and earlier) or scheduled (August 1, 2012 or later) occupancy date.
Each square represents one building and the size of that square represents the number of units in the building. The colour of each square corresponds to the year that building starting selling (ie Opening Date) and it’s all plotted against the average initial asking price/sf ($/sf) for the building.
Here’s the chart….
This type of chart can be used to learn many things, especially as you drill down into specific geographic areas. However it is quite useful as an overview of projects working through the long delivery pipeline of many years from launch to construction start to occupancy and subsequent closing.
For instance the projects that have occupied, or are scheduled to be occupied (many will be delayed), in 2012 had opening dates ranging from 2007 through 2010 and had an average initial price of $442/sf at opening. The current RealNet Price Index of $542/sf, but the majority projects opening this year – and contributing to today’s price index – are not scheduled to be occupying until 2015 or 2016.
An understanding of today’s new home market requires a look at both ends of the delivery pipeline as typical metrics like sales price and number of starts must now be viewed with the perspective of completions and occupancies.
If you have comments or questions feel free to contact me directly.
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