I just posted a new blog over at the realnet.ca site. Here’s the link to Know Your Indicators
To watch for new blog posts you can also follow me at @RealNetNewHomes on Twitter.
We’ve replaced this blog with another on our RealNet.ca site however, currently there is no way to get automatic notifications of new blog posts.
Until that happens I’ll post links here so that you continued to be notified of new content.
You can also follow our new twitter account at @RealNetNewHomes for notice of blog posts and other interesting GTA residential development and new home data.
Please let me know if you have any questions or require additional information.
Here’s the May 2013 blog post. More to come soon.
http://www.realnet.ca/gta-new-homes-may-2013/
Thanks.
Steve.
Some other details from our March 2013 GTA New Home data release earlier this week.
Year to date (Jan. to Mar.) 2013 new home sales are down significantly from the same period last year. So far this year High Rise new home sales are down -24% and Low Rise new home sales are down -43% from the first 3 months of 2012. An interesting point however is the dip in new Supply so far this year. New High rise projects openings (total units) are down -64% from the same period last year and new Low Rise supply (total lots released) is down -53% from the same period in 2012. This had new home remaining inventory dropping slightly from February 2013 to March 2013. However, March 2013 available inventory is still +8% higher than last year for High Rise units and 15% higher for Low Rise homes.
Below is an extract from our Monthly Market Report – March 2013 to which all RealInfo subscription clients have access.
The March and Q1 2013 new home market numbers for the GTA were released in a RealNet private client webinar this morning. The detailed market briefing delivered by George Carras (President, RealNet) with additional market presentations by TREB’s Jason Mercer, BILD’s Bryan Tuckey, and NBLC’s Barry Lyon will be posted inside the RealInfo application for download by clients.
In the meantime here are some of the highlights:
March 2013 New Home Sales:
High Rise: 1,120 sales; down -47% from March 2012
Low Rise: 973 sales; down -47% from March 2012
Total New Homes: 2,093 sales; down -47% from March 2012
Q1 2013 New Home Sales:
High Rise: 2,931 sales; down -24% from Q1 2012
Low Rise: 2,639 sales; down -43% from Q1 2012
Total New Homes: 5,570 sales; down -34% from Q1 2012
I’ll be back soon with new Supply and Remaining Inventory numbers. New Supply has dropped dramatically from Q1 2012 and remaining inventory (although still higher than the same time last year) has edged down from the recent highs of late last fall.
Here’s a look at our year to date (Jan. thru Feb.) sales in 2013 as compared to the same period in previous years.
High Rise: 1,734 sales; down -2% from YTD 2012
Low Rise: 1,660 sales; down -40% from YTD 2012
Total New Homes: 3,390 sales; down -25% from YTD 2012
Here are the monthly sales figures for the GTA new home market for February 2013….
High Rise: 952 sales; down -7% from Feb. 2012
Low Rise: 1,078 sales; down -32% from Feb. 2012
Total New Homes: 2,030 sales; down -22% from Feb. 2012
Back soon with the updated Year to Date totals…..
For subscribers to RealInfo, your full Monthly Market Reports (High Rise, Low Rise) are available on the Market Reports page after logging in to the service at http://www.realnet.ca
We’ll have the GTA New Home sales figures for February 2013 here on Tuesday….
Here are the numbers for January 2013 new home sales in the GTA.
High Rise: 686 sales; down -8% from Jan. 2012
Low Rise: 562 sales; down -52% from Jan. 2012
Total New Homes: 1,248 sales; down -35% from Jan. 2012
More numbers soon…..
So based on Total Units we showed an increasing number of larger condo projects being launched but also a decreasing average size – ie lots of smaller building too.
Now what about building height? Lots of new skyscrapers out there but lets get some perspective by looking at all of the data.
Looking at the building height (storeys) in new project openings by quarter since 2000 we get the following chart. Each circle represents a new condo project corresponding to its Opening Date (x-axis) and the Building Height in storeys (y-axis) with the colour representing the current Construction Status.
As illustrated above, 2012 had more new project openings of buildings greater than or equal to 40 storeys than any previous year with 14 projects. The previous record was the 12 projects greater than 40 storeys that launched in 2011. Before that 9 projects of that building height launched in 2010, 2008, and in 2007.
In general there was a big step up in the number of new project launches with buildings greater than or equal to 40 storeys beginning in 2005 when there were 8 such projects. Previous to that, 3 projects in one year was the most.
The most drastic changes year over year belong to the number of projects greater than or equal to 60 storeys. Prior to 2012 there had never been more than 1 of these projects opening in a given year, and in total there were only 5. But in 2012 alone there were 4 new projects launched of 60 storeys or grater.
As with Total Units, the projects with Building Heights at the top end are getting more plentiful but on average 2012 saw the lowest average Building Height (15.9 storeys) since 2009 (which was a bit of an odd year for new releases) and 2004 before that.
So we’re getting more larger buildings (units and storeys) as well as more smaller buildings (units and storeys). This seems to play into the dual market make-up of the new home condo market – part investor and part owner-occupier – each with different preferences and buying habits. This “Tale of Two Markets” was also considered here .
The next step is to further segment the smaller building universe to see if there are changes there that might indicate more of an evolving owner occupier market. Stay tuned… And you can get email notification of new posts by clicking on the “sign me up” button in the right margin.
We’ve often shown data related to the shrinking size of condo units over the last couple of years but we have not looked at what’s happening with overall condo building size.
I think, based on anecdotal evidence around us, we’ve assumed that building sizes were getting bigger over the last several years – which would be both right, and wrong.
Here’s what the data says:
If we look at the total number of units in new project openings by quarter since 2000 we get the following chart. Each circle represents a new condo project corresponding to its Opening Date (x-axis) and the total number of units in that project (y-axis) and the colour represents the current construction status.
As we can see, the number of new projects with more than 500 units has been increasing over time. Before 2008, the most new project launches with greater than 500 units occurred in 2003 with 4 projects exceeding that size. Then in 2008 we saw 7 projects launched with greater than 500 units, followed by 9 projects in 2012.
So the frequency of larger projects is increasing but if we look at the average number of units per project for each year we see that 2012 had the lowest average (197 units) since 2004. And for the years between 2004 and 2012 average project size fluctuated between a low of 206 units (2006) and 240 units (2008).
If we take another step up and look at those projects with more than 600 units, there have been only 17 projects over the last 13 years but 35% (6 projects) of those projects opened in 2012. Of those 17 projects 2 are completed, 9 are under construction and 6 are in a pre-construction stage.
Check back soon as I’ll run the same numbers on building height to see if we’re getting taller on average….
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